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BEIRUT – Amidst the ongoing concerns about the future of Syria and before the expiration of the sixty-day truce, Lebanon is witnessing a session to elect the President of the Republic on Thursday. So far, there is no internal consensus on the candidate, while external pressure is mounting to elect Lebanese Army Commander General Joseph Aoun.<\/p>\n
Amos Hochstein, the US presidential envoy, who met with Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Parliament, in Beirut said that the Israeli withdrawal from the south will continue until the \u201cdeployment of the Lebanese Army in the south, reaching the Blue Line\u201d is complete.<\/p>\n
Hochstein pointed out that this process is difficult, but it is an opportunity \u201cto not think about external forces, but to focus on rebuilding the economy and implementing the necessary reforms that will allow investment and return the country to prosperity.\u201d<\/p>\n
Accompanied by Lisa Johnson, US Ambassador to Beirut, and US General Jasper Jeffers, the head of the Quintet Committee (the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar), Hochstein also met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail.<\/p>\n
Hochstein called the meeting with Mikati was very constructive, saying, \u201cI think Mikati has shown great leadership in getting to this point \u2026 We talked about what the government needs to do to continue to implement this agreement and make sure that the country can benefit from it, and reach prosperity and stability.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Hochstein also visited Naqoura, where he chaired a third meeting on the mechanism of the Quintet Committee\u2019s work. He discussed too \u201ctechnical military plans for the gradual withdrawal of the Israeli army from the entire area south of the Litani.\u201d<\/p>\n
Yazid bin Farhan, an advisor on Lebanon affairs at the Saudi Foreign Ministry, had also visited Lebanon, calling for the election of General Joseph Aoun, as agreed upon by the members of the committee.
It is worth noting that Yazid bin Farhan was present at Hochstein\u2019s meeting with Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi Foreign Minister, in Riyadh, where they discussed \u201cregional developments, especially in Lebanon.\u201d<\/p>\n
The Saudi envoy\u2019s meeting with Speaker Nabih Berri was described as \u201ctense,\u201d during which he confirmed that \u201cRiyadh supports the nomination of the army commander.\u201d<\/p>\n
Berri, however, did not hide his anger, informing bin Farhan that this proposal contradicted what he had agreed upon with the committee, demanding \u201csupport for the candidate that the Lebanese agree upon, rather than for the outside world.\u201d<\/p>\n
Berri said it is impossible to secure sufficient votes to amend the constitution to elect the army commander. Additionally, he said, there is a lack of agreement among Christians on it.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Berri recalled Aoun\u2019s rigid relationship with many political forces and the difficulty of reaching an understanding with him as was evident from his unsteady relations with the defense ministers who succeeded each other while he was in command of the army.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan also met with Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces, stressing his country\u2019s intention to re-engage in Lebanon\u2019s political arena \u201con the condition that there is a legitimate president [elected by consensus] who is strong and qualified to rule [official institutions] and form a government whose [policy] is in line with him.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bin Farhan continued, \u201cSaudi Arabia is interested in Lebanon; the Lebanese must seize the opportunity because the world will be preoccupied with Syria.\u201d<\/p>\n
Geagea frankly told the Saudi envoy that he does not support the election of General Aoun.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cWe have approached him more than once, but he did not respond,\u201d Geagea stated, recalling that Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement also oppose his election, which means that \u201che will not be able to obtain the 86 votes needed to be elected.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to sources, Geagea fears any way out during Thursday\u2019s session that would result in the election of a president \u201cthat does not fit the requirements of the stage\u201d or the availability of consensus on the army commander.<\/p>\n
For this reason, Geagea asked his loyal MPs to be vigilant and to keep all options on the table, including withdrawing from the session or dismantling its quorum.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Hajj Mohammad Raad, head of the \u201cLoyalty to the Resistance\u201d parliamentary bloc, had met with Berri, reaffirming the \u201ccomplete understanding\u201d between Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, and the \u201cunity of position regarding all internal files and political entitlements.\u201d<\/p>\n
During a press conference held at the site of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah\u2019s martyrdom, Wafiq Safa, head of Hezbollah\u2019s Liaison and Coordination Unit, underscored that \u201cHezbollah\u2019s only veto\u201d would be on \u201cthe election of Samir Geagea because he is a project of sedition and war\u201d and not on any candidate agreed upon by the parliamentary blocs.<\/p>\n
For his part, Hussein Hajj Hassan, a Hezbollah MP, explained that this position does not mean that Hezbollah has backed down from its only declared candidate, namely Suleiman Franjieh, head of the Marada Movement, nor does it mean that it supports or rejects the army commander.<\/p>\n
It is worth noting that Geagea declared, during one of the internal sessions, that \u201cafter the Israeli war destroys Hezbollah, we will negotiate with him on the presidency of the republic after he becomes weak.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n
Following the fall of the Bashar al-Assad government, Geagea foolishly thought that the \u201cvictory\u201d of his American-Israeli ally would achieve his only chance to become president, even if he was forced as his predecessor Bashir Gemayel did. Nevertheless, his Saudi allies frustrated him by announcing their support for the election of the army commander.<\/p>\n
On August 23, 1982, during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, Gemayel was elected President of the Republic. However, he was assassinated on September 14 before he could assume office, by the resistance fighter Habib Al-Shartouni because of his crimes during the civil war and his deep relationship with Israel.<\/p>\n
At the moment, all that Geagea cares about is to thwart Thursday\u2019s session until Trump\u2019s inauguration, as he bets on three variables: escalating pressure on Hezbollah; resuming aggression against Lebanon; and launching an aggression against Iran.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Geagea hopes to postpone the presidential elections that have been pending since 2022 and hold early parliamentary elections that will end what he calls Amal and Hezbollah\u2019s \u201cmonopoly\u201d over the Shiite seats, which will facilitate the election of an alternative to Speaker Berri. This will tip the balance in his favor. Hence, his presidential dream will come true.<\/p>\n
As a reminder, during the 2022 elections, Hezbollah won the 347,171 preferential votes, an increase of 3,951 votes compared to the 2018 elections. MP Mohammad Raad won the highest number of preferential votes in all of Lebanon: 48,543 votes, followed by his fellow MP Sayyed Hassan Fadlallah: 43,235 votes, then Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri with 42,091 votes.<\/p>\n
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