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TEHRAN – Former US ambassador Ryan Crocker, a veteran diplomat known as \u201cAmerica\u2019s Lawrence of Arabia\u201d for his deep understanding of the Middle East, tells Politico that the Israelis have forgotten their own recent history.<\/p>\n
Crocker says what he most fears is Israeli overconfidence following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.<\/p>\n
Crocker says Israel must now seize the chance for a\u00a0ceasefire and free hostages, but history suggests Israel and its enemies won\u2019t take it.<\/p>\n
Crocker spent nearly four decades representing America\u2019s interests in the Arab world, serving as U.S. ambassador to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Kuwait, as well as to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now retired, Crocker believes the hostilities between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah \u2014 as well as Iran \u2014 are nowhere near to ending. The death of Sinwar, which followed the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah last month, will result mainly in the continuation of a guerrilla war unless the US and Israel work hard toward a cease-fire, Crocker tells the American magazine.<\/p>\n
The current situation is all too similar to what happened four decades ago when the Israelis invaded Lebanon, Crocker says. \u201cThat invasion and the subsequent Israeli occupation created Hezbollah. This invasion is not going to end it.\u201d He adds: \u201cOne thing I\u2019ve learned over years, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, is that the concept of the defeat of an adversary only has meaning in the mind of that adversary. If that adversary feels defeated, he is defeated. If he doesn\u2019t, he\u2019s not.\u201d<\/p>\n
I would not see much change on the battlefield in Gaza<\/strong><\/cite><\/p>\n On what the death of Yahya Sinwar signifies, he says organizations such as Hamas operate without direction from the leader.\u00a0 \u201cI would not see much change on the battlefield itself. That said, we know that Hamas has lost its organized capability to a very large degree but that would be the case with or without Sinwar.\u201d<\/p>\n Crocker sees \u201cgreater residual capability on the part of Hezbollah.\u201d<\/p>\n Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the \u201cbalance of power\u201d in the region has changed in Israel\u2019s favor. However, the former veteran diplomat says, \u201cI would say that\u2019s premature. Clearly Hezbollah fights on. Rockets are still flying across the border, as are drones. They\u2019re decentralized. Clearly Hamas as well as Hezbollah is decentralized. They\u2019re certainly ground down in terms of their capability of delivering anything like a meaningful response. But I foresee a very long insurgency by Hamas.\u201d<\/p>\n Crocker says, \u201cIt\u2019s a very different dynamic in the north (Lebanon). In a sense Netanyahu has set the bar very high, in that he\u2019s trying to stop the rocket fire in a definitive way so that 60,000 Israelis can go back home. Though all Hezbollah has to do is keep enough rockets crossing the border to make that difficult.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cPeace for Galilee\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cI was in Lebanon in 1982 when the Israelis invaded. They called their operation \u2018Peace for Galilee.\u2019 And 42 years later Lebanon is further from peace than it was in \u201882 when that invasion kicked off. That invasion and the subsequent Israeli occupation created Hezbollah. This invasion is not going to end it.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cNo change in power equation\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n In response to the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31 which was followed by the assassinations of the Hezbollah leader and Iran\u2019s top military advisor to Lebanon in Beirut in a massive airstrike two months later, Iran fired 180 ballistic missiles at military and intelligence sites inside Israel on October 1. Since that date, Israel has been warning that it will retaliate.<\/p>\n Quoting anonymous sources, certain Western media outlets have said the Israelis may not hit Iran\u2019s nuclear or oil sites, but just military or intelligence targets, which could be less escalatory.<\/p>\n On this assessment, Crocker says, \u201cIt is not going to meaningfully change any power equation. What I think it will do is push the debate inside Iran in the direction of nuclear weaponization sooner rather than later.\u201d<\/p>\n Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 led to emergence of Hezbollah<\/strong><\/cite><\/p>\n On whether he is not concerned that the Israelis have become overconfident, Crocker said, \u201cI worry that they\u2019ve forgotten their own recent history. They hailed the operation \u201cPeace for Galilee\u201d as a great victory after the PLO [Palestinian Liberation Organization] withdrawal from Beirut. And of course what they got was Hezbollah\u2026. So the idea that a ground invasion and subsequent occupation is somehow going to make Galilee safer is delusional.<\/p>\n He adds, \u201cOne thing I\u2019ve learned over years, especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, is that the concept of the defeat of an adversary only has meaning in the mind of that adversary. If that adversary feels defeated, he is defeated. If he doesn\u2019t, he\u2019s not. Will these decapitations make the adversary feel defeated? I guess time will tell but I would bet against it.\u201d<\/p>\n Crocker says he was in Lebanon as U.S. ambassador when the Israelis assassinated Abbas Musawi, the secretary-general of Hezbollah in 1992 when Israeli helicopters fired missiles at his motorcade but that high-profile assassination didn\u2019t exactly weaken Hezbollah.<\/p>\n On what he thinks the Israelis should do now, Crocker says, \u201cLet us work on some cessation of hostilities. In the north you got UN Resolution 1701 on the table, as it\u2019s been since 2006. And another UN resolution from 2004 similarly worded. Those are the reference points, the scripts for everyone involved. It might be that some hardscrabble U.S. diplomacy is needed so as to broker at least a cease-fire in the north. And in Gaza I think everything needs to be directed toward getting hostages back.<\/p>\n \u201cThat is something to work toward. This may be an interval in which Hezbollah and Iran for their own reasons may want a cease-fire. So if you can get that \u2014 enough of a cessation of hostilities to allow Israelis to return home \u2014 then you might be able to build toward some kind of implementation of 1701. That would also be the best way of dealing with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n