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TEHRAN – A Princeton University researcher says 2026 may bring \u201cdeeper instability\u201d at a great cost to the Middle East and United States if UN resolutions are not enacted, a regional security mechanism is not established, and the US and Iran don\u2019t enter comprehensive dialogue.<\/p>\n
\u201cOnly by implementing UN resolutions, establishing regional security mechanisms and pursuing a comprehensive US-Iran dialogue can the Middle East escape its cycle of conflict,\u201d Seyed Hossein Mousavian wrote on Middle East Eye website on December 22.<\/p>\n
The former chief of Iran\u2019s National Security and Foreign Relations Committee also say though the Trump administration keep insisting that the joint Israeli-US strikes on Iran\u2019s military and nuclear infrastructure in June 2025 marked a \u201chistoric success\u201d, the long-term consequences for the US are \u201cfar more severe\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u00a0The article titled \u201cHow the Middle East can escape the cycle of conflict in 2026\u201d reads as follows:<\/p>\n
The past year has been one of the most consequential in the modern history of the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A series of interconnected military escalations – from Gaza to\u00a0Iran\u00a0– has reshaped the regional order, revealed deep strategic anxieties, and exposed the limits of\u00a0American\u00a0and\u00a0Israeli\u00a0power in a volatile geopolitical landscape.<\/p>\n
Across the region, Israeli military operations have dramatically\u00a0widened. In\u00a0Gaza, the continued devastation since October 2023 has led to unprecedented humanitarian suffering and political fragmentation.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Israeli air strikes have also targeted Iranian and Hezbollah positions in\u00a0Syria, while similar operations have expanded in\u00a0Lebanon, threatening a broader regional war. In\u00a0Yemen, Israeli strikes aimed at disrupting Houthi capabilities added yet another front to an already overstretched conflict map.<\/p>\n
Most stunning was Israel\u2019s\u00a0attack\u00a0this past September on\u00a0Qatar, a US ally\u00a0hosting the biggest\u00a0American military base in the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Justified by Israeli officials as an attack on Hamas leaders who were negotiating in Doha, the strike missed its target, and Qatar condemned the move as a violation of its sovereignty, amid widespread international outrage.<\/p>\n
These actions unfolded alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s renewed public endorsement of the \u201cGreater Israel\u201d\u00a0concept. Supported by ultranationalist Israelis, this\u00a0expansionist vision\u00a0is widely understood to encompass the occupied West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon and\u00a0Jordan, along with parts of Syria,\u00a0Egypt,\u00a0Iraq\u00a0and\u00a0Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n
In mid-2025, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. While Washington\u00a0framed the operation\u00a0as an \u201cintentionally limited\u201d and preventive action, Iran\u2019s response surprised many observers, as it rained missiles onto Israeli cities. \u00a0<\/p>\n
US President Donald Trump subsequently\u00a0appeared\u00a0to praise the Iranian strikes, acknowledging their significant impact: \u201cIsrael was hit really hard, especially in the last couple of days. Those ballistic missiles, boy, they took out a lot of buildings.\u201d<\/p>\n
The regional situation was further complicated when, under a UN-backed plan, Gaza was removed fom\u00a0Palestinian\u00a0administrative control and placed under an international authority led by the US president. While supporters argued this was necessary to prevent renewed militancy, critics\u00a0called\u00a0it a dangerous precedent that effectively legitimizes external trusteeship over occupied populations.<\/p>\n
Recent developments echo a famous admission by US General Wesley Clark in 2007,\u00a0recalling\u00a0a 2001 Pentagon plan to \u201ctake out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon,\u00a0Libya, Somalia,\u00a0Sudan\u00a0and, finishing off, Iran\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But despite the Trump administration\u2019s\u00a0insistence\u00a0that the 2025 strikes on Iran marked a \u201chistoric success\u201d, the long-term consequences for the US are far more severe.<\/p>\n
Washington has now placed itself in the category of powers that have launched direct military aggression against the Iranian homeland – alongside invaders such as Genghis Khan and Saddam Hussein. This is a mark that will not fade from Iran\u2019s civilizational memory; it will shape Iranian nationalism and the country\u2019s regional posture for generations.<\/p>\n
If US policies continue unchanged into 2026, the Middle East will witness more war, instability and economic disruption. The US risks becoming further entangled in a region from which every administration has sought to pivot.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Washington\u2019s ability to focus on the critical priorities\u00a0identified\u00a0in its 2025 National Security Strategy – the Western Hemisphere,\u00a0China, technological competition and global economic resilience – will be severely undermined. The attack on Iran thus represented a strategic setback for both the region and the US.<\/p>\n
As long as Tel Aviv continues pursuing its \u201cGreater Israel\u201d vision, and as long as the US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran persists, there will be little hope for lasting peace. Regional mistrust between Iran and its neighbors remains high, and the geopolitical architecture of West Asia is fragile.<\/p>\n
Peace and stability depend on several steps: firstly, the US must move away from rhetorical support to active implementation of UN\u00a0resolutions\u00a0on Palestinian statehood. Without resolving the eight-decade Israel-Palestine conflict, no regional framework can endure.<\/p>\n
Secondly,\u00a0in June 2025, Iran\u00a0threatened\u00a0to wipe out Israel from the face of the earth\u2019 if Iran is attacked again. In October 2025, the Israeli officials\u00a0threatened\u00a0to wipe Iran, Lebanon off the face of the earth.<\/p>\n
Given their influence, the US and China are uniquely positioned to mediate between Israel and Iran to prevent further military escalation – and they should do so.<\/p>\n
Thirdly, the eight countries bordering the Persian Gulf should take steps towards a\u00a0regional\u00a0security and cooperation system, reducing reliance on external powers and building predictable, institutionalized dialogue.<\/p>\n
Fourthly, the Eurasian Economic Cooperation Organization should progress beyond the economic front towards\u00a0collective\u00a0political and security mechanisms, integrating\u00a0Turkey, Iran,\u00a0Pakistan, and Central Asian and Caucasus states.<\/p>\n
Finally, Washington and Tehran need to shift from frozen diplomacy to renewed negotiations. This could enable them to reach a sustainable nuclear agreement, while also addressing mutual interests and areas of cooperation, and engaging on disputes that have fueled decades of hostility.<\/p>\n
The past year has exposed the dangers of unilateralism, militarized regional strategies and maximalist ideological projects. Only by implementing UN resolutions, establishing regional security mechanisms and pursuing a comprehensive US-Iran dialogue can the Middle East escape its cycle of conflict.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Without such steps, 2026 may bring deeper instability – at great cost to both the region and the US.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n